Iran’s current turmoil could be an intelligence windfall for China. As Tehran’s security leadership is decapitated and its cyber capabilities become an Israeli target, Beijing can extract operational lessons, deepen surveillance, and expand its regional influence.
Moments of crisis inside rival intelligence systems create rare opportunities for leverage. China has exploited these opportunities before, and will likely do so again.
The Iran-China intelligence relationship has always been opaque. But in 2009, a piece of malware jointly-authored by the US and Israel damaged thousands of nuclear centrifuges at Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment plant. Humiliated by the precision of the cyber operation, Iranian authorities began compiling a list of informants on the inside.
What followed was one of the worst counterintelligence failures in CIA history. At the time, the CIA relied on an unsecured comms system, meant for short-term use in hostile environments in Iran and China. After…
